In Ukraine, the fuel market has faced several problems at once: bad weather cut off supplies in the southern directions, the Romanian route remained blocked, the oil pipeline was not working, and Lithuania introduced restrictions in the west. As a result, the average wholesale price of diesel fuel increased by UAH 2.17/l over seven days and reached UAH 52.38/l. Since the beginning of October, wholesale prices have already added UAH 5.46/l. At retail, the increase is still less noticeable — only UAH 1.03/l per week, but the direction is clear: prices at gas stations will go up.
Meanwhile, operators' earnings are falling. The difference between wholesale and retail has narrowed to UAH 4.94/l — the lowest figure since February 2024. In the first ten days of November, the margin was UAH 5.48/l, which is almost UAH 3 less than the annual average. So the market will have to raise retail prices to bring margins back to acceptable levels.
There is no hope for compensation through gasoline: its wholesale price has increased by only UAH 0.40/l since October 22, and at retail it even slightly decreased. The retail margin has fallen to UAH 8.83/l, although it remains close to the average level of this year. The only fuel that still maintains relative stability is autogas: its wholesale price has increased by only UAH 100 per ton since the beginning of November (which is approximately UAH 0.05/l), and the average retail price has not changed and stands at UAH 34.35/l.
In the future, we should expect only price increases. Given current trends and the squeezed margin, diesel has every reason to become more expensive by at least another UAH 2.5 per liter.
