Currently, the average price of diesel fuel on the market is UAH 22.80/l. Taking into account global quotes over the past month and a retail margin of UAH 3.9/l ($180/t), the projected price is around UAH 21.5/l. Thus, there is room for a price reduction of approximately UAH 1.3/l.
The basis for such a reduction is provided by the European market. Over the past two months, the average quote for diesel fuel has lost $47/t, which corresponds to a 10% drop. During the same period, the hryvnia strengthened by 82 kopecks/$1, reaching 25.98-26.02 UAH. At the same time, the euro exchange rate according to the NBU rose by 60 kopecks/€1 and amounted to UAH 29.56.
The situation in Europe has also affected the wholesale segment of Ukraine: since April 20, the average price of diesel fuel has fallen by UAH 1,760/t and stopped at UAH 20,880/t — this is the lowest figure since December 21, 2016.
Automotive batches of diesel fuel have also become cheaper: now they cost UAH 18.04/l, which is the minimum since December 18, 2016 (in March it was UAH 19.29/l, in May — UAH 18.64/l). Russian fuel, which is supplied by road tankers to the stations of Novograd-Volynsky (Zhytomyr region) and Smyga (Rivne region), as well as Belarusian product from oil depots in Korosten (Zhytomyr region), were offered at UAH 17.35-17.40/l.
So far, the price adjustment has affected only the lower segment: the SUN OIL, BRSM-Nafta and UPG chains have reduced the cost by 10-30 kopecks/l. The Factor chain recently set a price of UAH 19.70/l — this is the minimum level on the market. This price is UAH 2.30/l lower than that of the Privat group, and UAH 4.79/l cheaper than that of large operators (OKKO, WOG, SOCAR).
As for gasoline, the changes are not so noticeable: the average June quote is only $12/t lower than in May. If we calculate the forecast levels for A-92 and A-95 taking into account a margin of UAH 3.5/l ($180/t), the potential for reduction is 0.36 and 0.64 UAH/l, respectively (to UAH 23.99 and 24.44/l).
