According to analysts at A-95, another surge in fuel prices can be expected in the near future. Over the past three months, the market has operated with a minimal markup, which usually precedes a period of margin growth typical for winter, when demand and sales volumes drop to a minimum, the experts' report says.
According to A-95 forecasts, the average estimated fuel price at the beginning of January could be: A-95 gasoline — 24.12 UAH/l (with an average price in Ukraine on December 26 of 23.51 UAH/l), diesel fuel — 21.95 UAH/l (21.05 UAH/l).
Sergey Kuyun added that it is still difficult to give an accurate price forecast for 2017, since much will depend on global oil quotes and the national currency exchange rate. "If the share of the oil component in the price of gasoline is estimated at 40%, then the currency factor reaches 90% — this is the same oil (40%) plus taxes, which account for up to 45% of the cost (excise tax and VAT). At the same time, fuel excise taxes, I remind you, are tied to the euro," the specialist explained.
The expert also noted that one of the key factors in the recent rise in fuel prices in Ukraine was the decision of OPEC countries to cut oil production. According to him, another important event subsequently occurred: for the first time since 2001, non-cartel states, including Russia, joined these agreements. The result of the meeting in Vienna was the signing of a memorandum to reduce the total volume of liquid hydrocarbon production by 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day — this is about 2% of world oil production.
"Ukraine, being an importing country, could not help but react to such serious changes. As usual, wholesale prices rose first, and then the increase in retail became only a matter of time. At the same time, the price increase of 50 kopecks per liter in the largest gas station chains, which occurred last weekend (December 24–25), will obviously not be the last," the expert summed up.
