During November 6-12, the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel did not change significantly: A-95 and A-92 slightly increased in price, while A-95, on the contrary, became cheaper. Diesel rose slightly, so the overall market picture was quite calm. However, analysts warn: such stability is likely only a temporary pause before another price revision.
The first to announce a possible price increase was the founder of Prime Group, Dmytro Lyoshkin. He explains the possible price growth by a shortage of fuel in Europe, from where Ukraine receives almost all of its gasoline and diesel. In his opinion, the market is already feeling supply constraints and resource shortages—in particular due to sanctions imposed against Russian Lukoil in Romania and Bulgaria, as well as the shutdown of some plants in Serbia.
Expert of the consulting group A-95, Artem Kuyun, agrees that the key factor is European. He notes that diesel has sharply risen in price in Europe, and he calls the market situation atypical. Logistics further complicates the situation: Ukrainian barges that were engaged in fuel transportation have been temporarily redirected up the Danube, and their return will take time.
However, there are those who disagree with this version. Hennadii Riabtsev considers the current situation a "planned action" by large traders, accusing them of artificially inflating prices by at least UAH 5 per liter. He is convinced that the oligopolistic position of large chains allows them to impose their own conditions on the market and push out small operators. According to him, there were no real problems with the port of Constanta, and talk of a shortage is an artificially created informational pretext.
In addition, Riabtsev reproaches the state for the lack of proper fuel quality control and for the same advance payments for large and small gas stations. As a result, according to the expert, small stations are closing, especially in frontline zones, which only strengthens the position of large chains.
Despite differences in explanations, experts are unanimous on one thing: an increase in fuel prices is practically inevitable. Regardless of whether it is a shortage of resources in Europe or a conspiracy of traders, drivers should be prepared for the fact that gasoline and diesel prices in Ukraine may rise by more than UAH 2 per liter in the near future.
