According to the National Bank of Ukraine, in 2024 the cost of fuel increased by more than 13%, and this trend is likely to continue. Among the main reasons are the increase in excise duty, instability in global oil quotations, and changes in the exchange rate. The NBU's published 'Inflation Report' notes that the gradual use of resources purchased at previous prices will only accelerate the process of price increases.
In the last months of 2024, the increase in fuel prices turned out to be more moderate than expected. In December, the annual growth rate slowed to 4.8%, while in September it reached 6%. The most noticeable impact on prices was the September adjustment of excise taxes, which primarily affected the cost of autogas. Additionally, gas prices were pushed up by the rise in raw material costs and significant demand on the European market, which intensified due to sanctions restrictions against Russia.
A separate factor remains competition among gas station operators. The fight for customers forces them to keep prices at a certain level, but the increase in tax pressure and global economic changes are gradually negating this effect.
Leonid Kosyanchuk, CEO of a gas station chain, expressed the opinion that prices should level off by mid-February, but one should not count on a decrease. He added that after February 15-20, the market will begin to activate, which may cause a new wave of price increases.
In turn, Dmytro Lyoshkin, founder of the logistics company 'Prime', predicts that in 2025 the determining factors for the Ukrainian fuel market will be the January increase in excise taxes, the rise in oil prices on world markets, and the instability of the exchange rate. Therefore, drivers and carriers will have to adapt to new price conditions.
