Due to a sharp reduction in supply volumes from a key supplier, a shortage of A-92 gasoline has formed on the market in the amount of 30–35 thousand tons. This is approximately 40% of the total consumption of this brand. Such a fuel shortage will likely cause an increase in the price of fuel.
Monthly consumption of A-92 in 2017 remains at the level of 80–85 thousand tons. Import supplies at the same time amount to 40–45 thousand tons, and almost all of this is fuel from Belarus (98%).
According to operational data, in October 2017, imports of A-92 amounted to only 9.7 thousand tons, of which Belarusian resources were only 4 thousand tons. Such a volume of supplies from Belarus became the minimum in a long time.
The October failure of supplies from Belarus also affected A-95: 10.5 thousand tons were imported, while the average monthly figure for 2017 was 40 thousand tons.
Such a noticeable drop is explained by planned repair work at the Mozyr refinery, which started on September 10 and was scheduled until the end of October. In addition, in September, most of the term contracts of BNK with Ukrainian partners were completed. As traders note, in October the Belarusian company sent significant batches of gasoline for export through the Baltic ports. In the Belarusian oil industry itself, it is also mentioned that the search for a new head of BNK has been ongoing for more than six months, which constrains the maneuverability of management in decision-making.
The result was that the shortage of A-92 in October is estimated at 30–35 thousand tons — about 40% of consumption. The deficit of A-95 was largely covered by increasing imports from Lithuania: it grew by 20 thousand tons, that is, three times the average monthly level.
Monitoring by the Consulting Group A-95 showed that in October, A-92 in free sale by railcar norms was impossible to find. The only exception was Ukrtatnafta, however, according to traders, shipments were irregular.
“Now with the supply of the 'two' it is really tense. But we formed small reserves in advance. We buy the rest at Ukrainian refineries,” a representative of a trader that supplies one of the largest gas station chains shared with enkorr.
“There is a shortage. 92nd is hard to find,” confirmed an employee of another large trading company. “We have to look for sources that we did not turn to before.”
A clear sign of an acute shortage of A-92 was its import by the WOG group by sea from Romania.
The shortage of the product is also indicated by the growth of the wholesale margin — $40–50/t to the estimated price for Belarusian fuel of about 28,600 UAH/t. Thus, on October 31, the Kremenchug refinery offered A-92 at 29,800 UAH/t.
The situation is aggravated by the shutdown of the Shebelinka gas processing plant for scheduled repairs from October 23 to November 10. In October, the plant managed to produce about 10 thousand tons of gasoline, of which, according to estimates, about 5 thousand tons were the 'two'.
“The shortage of Belarusian supplies, together with the growth of world quotations, will keep price tension in Ukraine throughout November. We expected to pass this period with an unchanged price, but the depth of shortfalls and the rise in prices on the world market push prices up,” comments Sergey Kuyun, director of the Consulting Group A-95.
