Accordingly, when calculating costs, the commercial or even black market rate is used, which differs significantly from the NBU data.
Therefore, Ukrainians should not hope for a decrease in the price of gasoline and diesel fuel, since the decline in world oil prices is offset by the fall of the hryvnia exchange rate.
It is worth recalling that our traders import approximately 80% of the fuel we consume, and they make payments in dollars and euros, and they still need to find where to buy them.
According to the consulting group "A-95", high-octane gasoline rose in price by 17 kopecks (on average to 17.11 UAH/l A-95), diesel fuel – by 15 kopecks. (up to 16.83 UAH/l).
«The price of fuel is dictated not by the price of oil, but by the dollar exchange rate, and from January 1 – also by the excise tax – 5% of the price "at the pump", and taking into account VAT – 6.5% or 1-1.1 UAH/l depending on the brand of fuel, – commented the director of "A-95" Serhiy Kuyun, – prices are already more influenced by the dollar exchange rate, which has increased in recent days. If the official NBU rate is 16-17 UAH, then the commercial rate, at which payments for imported fuel are made, has reached 21-22 UAH». According to elementary calculations, the dollar exchange rate on the "black" market, growing by one hryvnia, adds about 55 kopecks to the price of fuel. Some experts believe that the increase is even more significant – about 70 – 80 kopecks.
With the dollar exchange rate declared by the National Bank at 15.8-15.9 UAH, its real value is 20 UAH/$, therefore, the so-called risk premium is included in the price of fuel – about 2 UAH per liter. We also recommend reading our calculation of the real cost of gasoline in Ukraine.
