If the situation develops according to a favorable scenario, the annual sales volume of passenger cars (excluding LCV) may fall by 66%. In the worst-case scenario, the decline could exceed 70%.
Under an optimistic forecast, about 520 thousand passenger cars may be sold in Russia during 2022, which is 65.7% less than last year's figure. This scenario is possible provided that sanctions restrictions are eased, the macroeconomic situation improves, imports from Asian countries increase, and local factories resume operations.
The pessimistic scenario implies tougher sanctions and further deterioration of economic conditions. In that case, AvtoVAZ will not start production of the Duster model and will be forced to reduce output of existing models. Then the passenger car market will shrink to 394 thousand units, i.e., by at least 74%.
